New England Weather Guy
Weather Modification
With all the recent storms, we are hearing a lot of talk about “weather modification”, but what really is weather modification? On this page I will share FACTUAL information with you that is undisputed and agreed upon by independent scientists with as many sources cited as possible. Personal opinions will be shared as well, and I will clearly point out what is my opinion. All other information should be assumed to be fact unless otherwise stated. To start, we need to understand the definition of weather modification and the types of weather modification that are out there.
By definition, weather modification is the deliberate or the inadvertent alternation of atmospheric conditions by human activity, sufficient to modify the weather on local or regional scales. (Brittanica1) Weather modification research was started in the early 1940s with cloud seeding. By federal law, acts of weather modification are required to be reported (See 15 CFR § 908.3). By this law, the following types of weather modification shall be reported:
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Seeding or dispersing of any substance into clouds or fog, to alter drop size distribution, produce ice crystals or coagulation of droplets, alter the development of hail or lightning, or influence in any way the natural development cycle of clouds or their environment.
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Using fires or heat sources to influence convective circulation or to evaporate fog.
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Modifying the solar radiation exchange of the earth or clouds, through the release of gases, dusts, liquids, or aerosols into the atmosphere.
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Modifying the characteristics of land or water surfaces by dusting or treating with powders, liquid sprays, dyes, or other materials.
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Releasing electrically charged or radioactive particles, or ions, into the atmosphere.
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Applying shock waves, sonic energy sources, or other explosive or acoustic sources to the atmosphere.
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Using aircraft propeller downwash, jet wash, or other sources of artificial wind generation.
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Using lasers or other sources of electromagnetic radiation.
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Other activities undertaken with the intent to modify the weather or climate, including solar radiation management activities and experiments
(NOAA1)
CLOUD SEEDING
Cloud seeding is the most common type of weather modification which involves the introduction of chemical compounds to the atmosphere with the intention of causing rain or snow, typically for the purpose of increasing a local water supply. In 1946, two men named Vincent J. Schaefer and Irving Langmuir began experimenting with dry ice at the General Electric Research Laboratory. Using a special vessel with an artificially created cloud made of water droplets, they found that when they artificially introduced dry ice to this cloud, it super cooled the water droplets, causing them to become too heavy, and therefore falling from the cloud to the bottom of the vessel. (Brittanica1) Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the first ever scientifically recorded creation of real artificial snow. Shaefer and Langmuir also learned that when most of the water droplets froze and fell, the cloud dissipated and faded away. Again in 1946, Shaefer boarded a plane and flew into the Adirondack Mountains of New York. There, he dropped 6 pounds of crushed dry ice into a cloud, and snow began to fall shortly after. Results typically occur within minutes.
What is important to understand is that dry ice is simply frozen Carbon Dioxide. Dry ice is denser than regular ice made from water (H2O) and is nearly double the weight. This means that an aircraft being used for cloud seeding with dry ice would not be able to carry a very large volume of cry ice due to weight restrictions, limiting the amount that the aircraft is able to disperse. The bulk of the testing with dry ice is limited to very small, localized areas due to the need for large amounts of dry ice to be dispersed over large areas.
Other forms of cloud seeding involve the introduction of silver iodide and lead iodide. These chemicals are typically introduced into existing clouds by burning from the ground and allowing the smoke to penetrate the cloud. They can also be dropped from an aircraft similar to the introduction of dry ice. These chemicals are typically introduced into existing clouds by burning from the ground and allowing the smoke to penetrate the cloud. These burned chemicals perform the same way that introducing dry ice does by super cooling water droplets until the freeze and fall. Depending on the altitude at which the droplets freeze, and air temperature, these droplets may stay frozen and fall as snow, ice, or graupel, or they may semi melt and fall as freezing rain, or fully melt and fall as rain. These chemicals are extremely expensive to manufacture and are actually quite harmful to the environment.
The majority of cloud seeding experiments in the United States have occurred out west in the higher elevations with the intention to create snow due to what is described as a long duration megadrought that is believed to have been brought about by the undisputed change in the current climate. (SciAm1) As we know, snowpack melts slowly allowing run off to be absorbed slowly and penetrate the ground and eventually end up refilling aquifers. This is also practiced by dozens of countries around the world.
In 2014, scientists TP DeFelice, J Golden, D Griffith, W Woodley, D Rosenfield, D Breed, M Solak, and B Boe published a paper regarding the effects of cloud seeding over large and small areas. They utilized five weather modification experiments to prove or disprove that cloud seeding would benefit the water table using snowpack in the winter and enhanced rainfall in the summer. Their conclusion? Cloud seeding will not affect a broad area and is too limited to localized locations to improve ground water reserves or even refill bodies of water on the surface. The amount of precipitation was no more or less than natural precipitation, drawing the conclusion that cloud seeding in the United States at least serves no long-term benefit. (SciDir1)
This is not to say that cloud seeding does not serve any short-term purpose. Cloud seeding has been tested for combating forest fires. Testing has proved inconclusive as of 2023. In 2008, China used cloud seeding to disperse rain that was infringing on the Olympic games. Cloud seeding is often used around airports in European countries to disperse fog.
Cloud seeding has been discussed by many countries as a potential weapon of war by using it to divert potential natural precipitation from neighboring countries. Precipitation resulting from cloud seeding can also have unintended consequences. For example, a study in the United Arab Emirates demonstrated that cloud seeding operations led to an increase in urban flooding. A deathly blizzard in China and severe flooding in the United Kingdom have also been linked to cloud seeding. (Bulletin1)
CHEMTRAILS VS CONTRAILS
We often hear those long wispy cloud looking formations behind jet powered aircraft flying at high altitudes referred to as “chemtrails”. This is one of the longest running conspiracy theories in the world. In 2016, 77 international scientists came together to prove or disprove this conspiracy theory once and for all. In an international survey, 17% of people world wide stated that they believed in the existence of Secret Large-scale Atmospheric Program (SLAP) also referred to as chemical trails (chemtrails). In an objective research study, 76 of the 77 scientists (98.7%) stated that they had not come across any proof of SLAP. As taken directly from their research study, “We find broad scientific consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program.” (IopScience1)
So, if those long cloud like structures protruding from the rear of jet engines at high altitudes are not mind control chemicals being sprayed into the atmosphere, then what are they? Contrails, or condensation trails. Superheated water vapor mixed with burned jet fuel, also known as airplane exhaust. At 30,000ft elevation, the temperature is roughly -50 degrees Fahrenheit. This means that any water vapor that makes it up that high is frozen. We know this because the freezing point of water is 32 degrees Fahrenheit. -50 degree ice crystals entering the jet engine are super-heated to 2,500 degrees, mixed with the burnt fuel exhaust, and then reintroduced to the -50 degree atmosphere. This super cooling or superheated gasses forms a cloud for all intents and purposes. Depending on the exact temperature and the humidity level, these contrails may disappear rather quickly, or may linger for hours. (IopScience1) (SciAm2)
There are people out there who also believe that jet airplanes fly in a certain pattern so that their contrails create lines in order to block out the sun and reduce global temperatures. This is false. Aircraft follow high altitude flight routes just as ships in the ocean follow certain routes. These flight routes act like roads and keep aircraft all heading in a specific direction and keep them from flying into each other and away from busy airport airspace.
Are contrails harmful? Honestly? Yes. “But I thought you said they were just water vapor.” They are, but here’s the thing. Contrails, while they are not very dense and have more translucent properties during the day, can condense at night and form into larger clouds, which can trap heat due to earth’s radiant heating and cooling. Some contrails from a single airplane can spread out to be 600ft high, 1-2miles wide, and many miles long. What can we do to stop them? Nothing. Do contrails have any proven long-lasting environmental impacts? No. (Space1)
MORE INFORMATION TO BE ADDED SOON
Citations:
Brittanica1- www.britannica.com/technology/weather-modification
NOAA1- library.noaa.gov/weather-climate/weather-modification-project-reports
NOAA2- www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/70th-anniversary-of-the-first-hurricane-seeding-experiment/
SciAm1- www.scientificamerican.com/article/eight-states-are-seeding-clouds-to-overcome-megadrought/
SciAm2- www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-are-chemtrails-made-of/
Bulletin1- thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/
IopScience1- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011/pdf